Inauguration Day is a moment for looking forward, and for reflecting on the past. This is a look-back over the bigger ideas in this column, reexamining some, correcting others, knowing some points were better made the first time around. What did we learn?
65.2024 Review. Despite national downturns, Fairfield County’s real estate market remained robust in 2024, with most towns experiencing rising average prices and declining inventory levels. Expect price appreciation in the low single digits in 2025.
64. Winter Light. Snow-covered landscapes and the quality of natural light during winter can create stunning first impressions for potential buyers, making it an ideal time to list homes by highlighting light-filled spaces, removing distractions, and investing in brighter lighting for an inviting presentation.
63.The Value of Good Schools highlights that homebuyers are often willing to pay a premium — approximately 3-4% more — for properties located in areas with higher-rated schools. I think in New Canaan, with the highest-rated schools, that figure is understated.
62. Decision Making, Fast and Slow was directed at slower, overly cautious buyers who miss out on the houses they love. In the column, I compared Warren Buffet’s analytical discipline with Ted Williams’s, but house-buying is neither a split- second decision to swing, nor does it fit neatly into a portfolio. When making a decision on purchasing a new home, it’s crucial to balance quick, emotional reactions (e.g., falling in love with a home’s aesthetics) with deliberate, logical analysis. Buying a home should not be at all like buying a stock.
61. This Boiling Frog explores the impact of the SALT deduction limits on our local real estate market, affecting New Canaan values over $800,000, which in this market is almost all of them.
60.November Market Report highlighted the extreme lack of inventory in Darien — 34 houses — and the 24% increase in average price in Stamford.
59.Now What, Trump? considered five current influences of the Trump administration on our real estate market. It is often overlooked what impact the finance industry has on our local economy and by extension its real estate market.
58.What People Fear Most was a poor headline, but it was a look at datamining and how our behaviors are being studied. 2025 is the year Moneyball meets real estate, where the search for your next home makes greater use than ever of AI and computer modelling.
57. Election Effects told us that home sales typically increase in the year following a Presidential election. In this area, sales are constrained by inventory, not demand, so this may not be a typical year.
56.Climate Risk Threat Scores are entering the public consciousness. We found tools like that on Zillow to be lacking. In the wake of wildfires, hurricanes, and an insurance industry in crisis, with AI improving, expect these tools to get better in 2025.
55. A New Approach explored ways we might move forward with public- private partnerships on town- owned buildings in New Canaan and Wilton. We only collect expensive cost estimates from town’s own public works departments, an approach lacking imagination.
54.The Purchase of Avalon talked about the purchase of 104 homes by the New Canaan Housing Authority, dispelled some rumors, and discussed rents.
53. October Market Report outlined price appreciation in Darien (4.5%) and New Canaan (6.1%), simultaneous with a 4.7% decline in Westport.
52. An Existential Threat lamented the shuttering of the New Canaan Multiple Listing Service by the New Canaan Board of Realtors. It posed the questions of what the role of the Board is and whether we are losing a part of our distinct New Canaan identity.
51.Real Estate is Like and Not Like Poker talked about how we as real estate agents interact with each other, how we think, bluff and bluster, and how those relationships do affect the deals being made.
50.Like a Starter’s Pistol described the urgency being felt at the beginning of the Fall Market, the natural result of imbalance in the market, and a feeling that re- emerged as we begin the Spring market: arrive early, educated, and prepared to transact.
49. Labor Day Market Report explored four case studies as a way of illustrating what’s happening: not every property behaves like the average property.
48.What Drives the Housing Market? discussed low supply, high demand, and changes in how commissions are paid. I think the single biggest factor supporting real estate prices is the $84 trillion in wealth being transferred from the Baby Boomer generation to their kids and grandkids. So much wealth, and the different needs of each generation, is a major driver of real estate sales.
47. Round House was a celebration of a restored midcentury modern house in Wilton.
46.How to Show a House was a column about being purposeful, a particularly important message as we begin 2025. Arrive prepared and make your own luck.
45. Summer Thoughts was a column on swimming pool trends, down since peaking during the pandemic.
44.Mid-Market Report looked at eight towns, compared those that were similar, and picked out anomalies, such as Wilton’s January surge and Stamford’s surge in December, both uncharacteristic.
43.Rental Market Roundup was a look at the rental market not only across Fairfield County but in New York City and beyond, trying to tease out a trend.
What can we conclude about the state of the market as we head into
2025? Interest rates in the mid-6’s are historically middle-of-the-road but feel elevated when so many of us are holding onto rates around 3. Sales volume of 262 in New Canaan is also typical for most of the last decade but feels insufficient after a high of 608 sales during Covid. Supply has never been more constrained than right now, particularly affordable options, and that dynamic is not poised to change, perhaps not ever, as we have neither the infrastructure nor political will to support upzoning. Two factors pushing prices higher will eventually wane. They are the $84 trillion generational wealth transfer taking place across our society and record-setting Wall Street profits. These won’t last forever and the market will eventually rebalance.
I’ll conclude with a forward-looking
perspective, suggesting modest price appreciation across Fairfield County markets in 2025 and a need for strategic preparation in approaching the spring market, be that as seller or buyer for whom a mistake or an opportunity is often worth tens of thousands of dollars.
John Engel is a broker with the Engel Team at Douglas Elliman and he lives in a valley, that lowest point on the Ponus Ridge where the Greenley Road streams dip below the road to feed the Rippowam River. With streams come wildlife. Today in the snow, deer prints are apparent, maybe red fox. Red-tailed hawks are patrolling the meadow. There are mallard ducks in the pond, and we listen for great horned owls and barred owls at dusk.
Check out John Engel’s Podcast, Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation here.
Read this article on the New Canaan Sentinel website here.