The $3 million market is a very active price point in New Canaan right now One of our clients closed on the purchase of a $3.5 million home last week, while another of our clients closed on the sale of his $3.25 million home. Two others are contemplating putting their houses on in the mid threes this Spring. Three others are thinking of putting their houses on in the threes in Wilton. Are there enough S million buyers out there to go around? This week we focus on the $3 million slice of the market.

Who is buying? The rule of thumb is to afford a $3 million home, you should make between $700,000 and $1 million per year. And, as of 2021, an income of $819,324 puts you in the top 1% of earners this year, up 9.4% from 2020. Since New Canaan's housing market is so inextricably linked to New York City's, I've included a few charts on millionaires and millennials leaving New York during and after the pandemic.

There are currently nine homes on the market between $3 and $4 million, only two of them under $3.5 million and seven are above $3.5 million. There is only one antique in the group and two proposed construction, one of them a flat-roofed modern. It is worth noting that the price per foot of new construction (S824 and $846 psf) is nearly double that of 20-year-old construction ($423 ps) or an antique (S461 psf). The median price per foot is $550, and this is comparable to the median price per foot of all houses on the market in New Canaan. When buyers ask "What does it cost to build new?" I now have an answer for them, and it starts with an eight.

One of the great challenges in comparing the price per square foot is that the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) includes square feet above grade, ignoring what are often beautiful wine cellars, bars, movie theaters, and gyms. In many cases, these finishes are equal to the rest of the house, but in others they are heated and unfinished. Zillow counts all the square feet equally, and that's not a fair measure either.

When pressed to make a judgement on pricing a 20-year-old-home in this Submit questions and comment category, I look to the three comparable homes sold in the past 6 months and three pending sales:

• 30 Woodridge Circle listed at $3,295,000 and sold for $2,925,000

• 85 Clearview Lane listed at $3,250,000 and sold for $3,250,000

• 60 Myanos Road listed for $3,195,000 and sold for $3,295,000

• 32 Fawn Lane last listed for $3,295,000 and is under contract

• 674 Weed Street last listed for $3,350,000 and is under contract

• 35 Logan Road last listed for $3,495,000 and is under contract.

This shows that the market is strong in the above 3 million price category. All of the homes in this category have been well maintained and present very well. There are no distressed sales. The floors, trim, and walls are meticulous, and the exteriors are in excellent condition. Seven out of nine have a pool, one of which is an indoor pool. Rare indeed.

In the past year, we have had 25 single family sales (and two condos) in the category, and five more under contract by 27 different agents in 13 different offices.

Points worth noting: there were only three sales with significant acreage - four, five, and six acres - and they represented three of the five least expensive properties in the category at $3.0 and $3.05 million. The average house is 6,279 feet (finished above grade) and sits on 2.22 acres. While the average sold in 85 days, it's probably more useful to know that the median time was 21 days. That means half of all sales close in 21 days, a remarkable figure. Fourteen of the 25 sales closed for 100% or more of the asking price with an average of 99% and median of 100%. They're selling on average for 219% of their assessment. When New Canaan is reassessed in the next few months, that number will be around 150% of assessment. Only one sale was new construction, $3.995 million at 122 Weed Street. For those keeping score, this new construction did not start with an eight. It sold for $614 per foot. There was only one sale of an antique in the category, 461 West Road, built in 1870, also the smallest house in the category to sell. I'm sure it was one of the largest when it was built.

Notes from the Monday meeting

The market feels unseasonally busy. Phones are ringing in preparation for listing in the Spring or asking to see houses now. Rather than rely on a hunch, I looked up the MLS data on showings per listing and I have included the chart showing New Canaan, Darien, Stamford, and the whole MLS over the last three years. Activity peaks each Spring and falls this time every year. This year, in New Canaan, showings per listing actually rose to 8.2, a level 24% higher than this time last year, much higher than Darien, higher than June's 8.0, and nearly equal to the February peak of 10. Is this what they call Indian Summer?

John Engel wears a bow-tie when gardening. Last month, he planted 3,000 crocus and daffodil bulbs in anticipation of a glorious Spring. This month, he bought a 1976 Land Cruiser that needs a lot of love. He's installing new brake lines and needs to replace the power steering pump. Why? In 1991, John lived in a Humvee for 6 months in the Kuwaiti desert. We thought he got this need to ride around in an uncomfortable truck out of his system. But, apparently not.

Check out John Engel’s Podcast, Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation here.