Sales.

There were 17 sales of single family homes in November, exactly the same as what we sold in October, and when we look back 6 years before the pandemic and fed action to “normal” times we see November sales of 17 in 2018. My prediction is that next November we remain at 17 sales. Darien saw an increase from 16 to 19 sales this month. Condo sales in New Canaan rose from 3 in October to 5 in November, up 4 at this time last year. The rolling 12-month average stands at 67 condo sales, down from 79 at this time a year ago, again a reflection of less inventory and higher rates.

Median Price.

The median price in New Canaan rose from $1.805 million in October to $2.125 million in November, down -8.6% from a year earlier, ($2.324 million). Smoothing out the graph to look at the rolling 12-month average New Canaan came in at $2.00 million and that is up +5.1% since last year ($1.902). The Darien median dropped to $1.645 million from $2.0 million last month and Darien’s rolling 12-month average remained steady month-to- month at $1.850 million, up 8% from this time last year. Prediction is that sales prices continue to rise at 5% in both towns.

Days on Market.

The median Days on Market is 42, up 40% from November last year (30). One month could be an aberration so looking at the rolling 12-month average we see 26 days, unchanged from this time a year ago. Our prediction is for very little change to a tight housing market, that with low inventory and prices expected to rise modestly that days on market will remain at historically low levels for the next year. Darien is even tighter than New Canaan, with the median days on market coming in at 18, up from only 13 a month ago. Looking back we see Days on Market in New Canaan has ranged from 83 to 100 during the Obama administration 2013 to 2016 and then from 87 to 120 during the Trump administration 2016 to 2020. During Biden’s time in office Days on Market has consistently fallen from a high of 120 in Sept 2019 to 26 days on market today. The prediction is that the next election will have absolutely no effect on median Days on Market regardless of who wins: it will remain in the 20’s. Condo days on market currently stand at 18 in New Canaan and 35 in Darien while the rolling 12-month averages of 29 and 44 show a slight downward trend in New Canaan and a slight upward trend line in Darien.

New Listings.

There were 14 new single-family listings in November, up 27% from 11 a year ago. Looking at the 12-month rolling average we see 283 new listings in the last 12 months, the lowest level in a decade and currently on a sharply downward trend since the covid high of 630 in May 2021. We seem to have bottomed out as we are experiencing that same level of 283 since July of this year. Prediction is that new listings will rise by at least 5% over the next year as residents grapple with new revaluation levels and slightly lower or at least stable interest rates in 2024. The number of condos available in New Canaan, 14, has dropped continuously since a decade-long high of 70 in April 2021. Remember, the condos at Avalon and Canaan Parish (Rt. 123) are not listed on the MLS and are not counted. Of the 14 condos active now 12 are new at The Vue.

Months’ Supply.

New Canaan is currently showing 3.1 months’ supply of single-family homes, down -8.8% from a year ago and down from 3.5 months’ supply a month ago. Months’ supply is the number of months it would take to sell the current inventory of homes on the market. It is one of the best barometers of the market and according to the National Association of Realtors historically 6 months of supply is associated with moderate price appreciation and a lower level of months’ supply tends to push prices up more rapidly. Is it any wonder that with only 3.1 months’ supply the average sale is at 103% of list price (true for Fairfield County and New Canaan). When we watch the trend line for month’s supply and you’ll see it fell precipitously to below 5 months’ supply in summer of 2020 and has not recovered. Darien is currently showing 1.5 months’s supply, while Norwalk is at 1.8 and Wilton is 2.6. The numbers are even lower for condos in all four towns: New Canaan 2.4, Darien 0.8, Wilton 0.7 and Norwalk 1.4.

Notes from the Monday Meeting

A month ago we listed a house in New Canaan. The house was shown 20+ times. This week we lowered the price by 7%. The house was shown 20 more times and produced 4 offers over the asking price. Why and why now? Maybe it was the price, or the drop in rates, or the elimination of other options. Maybe the buyer was running out of time. It could have been different reasons for each of the 4 bidders. Sometimes we have to lose a few times before we win. The end of the year is historically slow but we see from these graphs it’s that the seasonal patterns of the market are gone. Across town another house sold for what we thought was too low a price, hundreds of thousands too low. We asked and were told the seller was in a hurry and took the first offer. About now I should write a great conclusion, something wise that makes sense of the market that you haven’t heard before but these are strange times and we have not seen graphs like these. heard before but these are strange times and we have not seen graphs like these.

John Engel is a realtor with The Engel Team at Douglas Elliman. When he was 12 the Engels moved to New Canaan and John began 8th grade at Saxe. That was 1980. New Canaan’s football team was 0-25-2 from 1978 to 1980. Vinnie Iovino arrived that year and hired coach Lou Marinelli in 1981. Led by star players Pat Shouvlin, Dave Bednar, Todd Murray and Jason Cooper the Rams rolled to an 8-2-1 record en route to the 1982 Class L-2 State Championship. Congratulations on 43 great years here coach Lou.

Check out John Engel’s Podcast, Boroughs & Burbs, the National Real Estate Conversation here.